08 Sep NFL DFS Week 1 Cheat Sheet
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Fanduel Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Picks Week 1: NFL DFS Advice
Week 1 NFL FANDUEL CHEAT SHEET AND ADVICE
Updated on 09.10.2016 at 6:00 pm
1. Spencer Ware is now my #2 pick of the week at running back
2. Mark Ingram is now my #3 pick of the week at running back
3. DeAngelo Williams is now my #4 pick of the week at running back
4. Tight End Martellus Bennett moves up to #5 pick of the week at tight ends
5. Jesse James falls out of my top 5 tight ends.
Last year I presented you (the readers) with a bunch of charts with tons of stats. I gathered as much stats as possible and tried to bundle it all up into one rating. Earlier in the season it was very successful. Later in the year it became very difficult to consistently cash as often as I did the first 11 or 12 weeks. The competition starts to get harder each week as player get better and the new dfs players with the idea of getting rich quick is no longer playing. During this offseason I read as many dfs books as possible to improve my skills in all sports. I’ve continued to do cheat sheets for myself for basketball and baseball and I’ve had a lot of success with it. The information below is a direct copy of my cheat sheet and notes that I will use each week. Before we get started I usually don’t play the Thursday night slate on FanDuel due to the inability to edit rosters once the slate has begun. I will make an exception this week.
Based on my notes below this is what my lineup would look like if the main slate started today?
Starting with the Quarterbacks here is a list of the 8 highest projected scorers in a segment I will call the Elite Eight. They’re in no particular order either.
Derek Carr ($7700)
- I’m big on opportunities in any dfs sports; Carr pass attempt per game jumped on the page for me. Last year he passed and average of 35 times which is the golden number for me.
- Vegas Projects Oakland to score 25 pts in a loss to New Orleans. This could result in a few extra passes late in the game.
- I expect him to finish just short of 20 Fpts.
Aaron Rodgers ($9000)
- In my opinion he’s still the best QB in the league and will be on my radar in most situations.
- Jacksonville did make a few changes on the defensive end; not enough to scare me or anyone else off of targeting an Opposing QB.
- Rodgers had 35+ pass attempts last year; but what really caught my attention are the 7 red zone opportunities per game from last year. Now that Jordy Nelson is back I’m extremely excited about using Rodgers in week one.
Russell Wilson ($8500)
- The Seahawks are projected by Vegas to score 27.3 pts against Miami. I don’t see much help from Christine Michaels in the running game. I see Wilson being very active in the running game.
- Last year Wilson Opportunity stats were 30 passes & 6 Rushes per game. I don’t see a decrease in those numbers in week one.
- Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over much, something that is rare with a mobile quarterback. One Con that I don’t like is the fact that he does get sacked a lot more than I prefer.
Andrew Luck ($8700)
- Healthy Luck is Good Luck
- I project him to finish in the Top 2 of scoring with 22 or more points.
- Beware this is a “Gut Feeling”
Matt Ryan ($7600)
- Ryan nearly passed the ball 40 times per game last year
- In the red zone Ryan got an average of 5 passes per game. With Julio and Freeman on the field I will be all over Ryan all season.
- Needs 16 FD fpts to hit value; I projected him to hit close to 20.
Drew Brees ($8700)
- According to my projections he will easily be a Top 3 scorer just behind Rodgers and Luck.
- Vegas are expecting the saints to defeat Oak by 1 point. If Nola was to fall behind that will lead to Drew airing it out more than they already does.
- Out of all the QBs in my Elite 8; Brees stats is like gold to me. 39 pass att/2 TDs/ 300+ pass yards per game last year.
Ben Roethlisberger ($8500)
- Big Ben doesn’t meet my opportunities requirement. He did get 5 Red Zone attempts per game last year.
- 3 of those 5 usually came inside the 5 yard line.
- He should also finish north of 20 FD fpts.
Cam Newton ($8600)
- Last year Newton averaged 30+ pass attempts and 8 rushing attempts per game.
- I don’t think I need to elaborate much about what this man can do in the red zone.
- Since the elite 8 is about total score and not value I rank Newton in the Top 5 with a finish number around 20 fpts for him against a tough defense.
I’m sure you’ve noticed I’m all about opportunities this next list is my Top 5 players based on the opportunities they get vs the defenses they’re up against with a little gut feeling infused in the ranking. All of these players I expect to have at least 35 opportunities combine between passing and running in their upcoming match up.
The Opportunist 5
- Derek Carr
- Aaron Rodgers
- Matt Ryan
- Matthew Stafford
- Joe Flacco
This next list is going to be the players I’m actually considering using.
Picks of The Week
- Dak Prescott: I have my accuracy worries from his college days; with a price of 5000 I’m willing to take that gamble.
- Derek Carr: At his price I can’t ignore Carr. I’m expecting him to be a top scorer too. I would be a fool not to use him.
- Aaron Rodger: My safest pick, his only negative is his 9K pricing on fanduel
- Russell Wilson: Based on his match up and ability to be involved in the Passing and running game.
- Andrew Luck: Just like I’ve said above I have a gut feeling that Luck is going to tear it up in week one
Next up is my Top 5 running back based on Projections.
THE BIG 5
DeAngelo Williams ($7100)
- I’m starting to think that Bell isn’t the best Running Back in the league, because DeAngelo lit up defenses across the league when Bell wasn’t available.
- I’m predicting DeAngelo to lead all running backs in scoring in week 1
Todd Gurley ($8900)
- Last year Gurley average carries per game was at 14, I expected it to be around 19 or 20.
- I expect him to have a very good day against the 49ers defense.
- A. Rams are only 2.5 pts favorites; so Gurley could get even more touches late in the game if that’s the outcome.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7900)
- Normally I wouldn’t spend $7.9K on a rookie running back. We all know how the cowboys like to run the ball and he’s running behind the best O-line in the league.
- I expect him to finish the season with 15+ rushing attempts per game. Starting with 15+ this game.
David Johnson ($8800)
- Just like Gurley and Elliot I expect a ton of the plays toward the end of the game to go to Johnson.
- Last year he got 7 carries and 3 targets per game, I think those numbers could double per game this season.
- Factoid of the day: 50% of Arizona’s rushing touchdowns went to David last year.
Devonta Freeman ($8100)
- I missed the freeman train all year last season. I won’t this time
- Between the Run and Pass game Devonta averaged around 22 opportunities last season.
- If he’s on the field as much as he was last year I can see him getting near 25 chances to score this season.
That does it for my top 5 scoring running backs. If you read any of my cheat sheets last season you would know how I favor cheap running backs. This is a list of my highest projected Running backs under $7K.
Top 5 Pocket Pinching Running Backs
- Shady McCoy
- Latavius Murray
- Ryan Mathews
- Carlos Hyde
- Duke Johnson
Picks of The Week
- Latavius Murray: Saints defense doesn’t appear to have improved and Murray is active in all parts of the offense
- DeAngelo Williams: If he only 1K higher than what I consider cheap. He will be in my lineups this week.
- Spencer Ware: With Jamaal Charles perhaps inactive; Ware instantly becomes one of my favorite plays for the week.
- Mark Ingram: Ingram got 10-15 carries per game last year, even more early in the season. I see this trend continuing.
- Eddie Lacy: It’s another “Gut Feeling”, plus he should be very low owned in my opinion.
- Ryan Mathews: No DeMarco to hog most of the carries. At his price all I need is 8 fpts from him; he will probably get 12 or 13 fpts.
- Todd Gurley: I tend to favor the cheaper running backs, but the potential upside that Gurley has in this match up can’t be ignored.
- Doug Martin: At the moment Martin isn’t on my radar, If Tampa Vegas lines change in a positive way he will get a huge bump up in my rankings.
- Duke Johnson: I need about 6 points out of Duke based on his price. He should easily double that number in this match up.
- Charles Sims: Just like Martin if Tampa Vegas lines improve it would consider using him in extreme situations.
This next section I’m going to discuss WR’s and TE’s. I generally have been bunching them together in my note since last year and this year is no difference.
High 5 Wide’s
Julio Jones ($9000)
- Should finish with close to the 20 fpts range given his match up.
- He’s perfect wide out he’s really fast, really strong and really big.
Antonio Brown ($9300)
- Last year he tied for most targets per game at 12; expecting the same regardless of the match up.
- My projections have him finishing with the most points at his position with 22 most probable fpts.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($9100)
- Another Physical specimen with super human abilities
- Last year Odell nearly averaged 1 touchdown per game.
- If Vegas have their way this should be a close game. If NYG gets behind on the score board Beckham’s stock goes up tremendously.
Brandon Marshall ($7700)
- As Wando Sykes would say “Yeah, I said it” Brandon Marshall will finish in the top 5 in scoring this week.
- Last year 42% of the passing touchdown went to Marshall.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8400)
- 15-16 fpts is where I see Hopkins landing when it’s all over
- DeAndre barely makes my Top 5; Outside of Jones, Brown and Beckham theirs about 8 other receivers that could potentially finish fifth.
My Next 5 Wide Receivers are……..
- A.J. Green
- Allen Robinson
- Dez Bryant
- Amari Cooper
- Sammy Watkins
I really like to spend up on Recievers; so……
Here’s 10 Players WR’s I’m Interested in Using.
- Julio Jones
- Antonio Brown
- Brandon Marshall
- Amari Cooper
- Sammy Watkins
- T.Y. Hilton
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Doug Baldwin
- Michael Crabtree
- Keenan Allen
*Terrelle Pryor is priced at $4900; potentially the biggest bargain out of all the receivers*
Next up are the Tight Ends. Just like Running backs I usually chase the targets and opportunities with these guys. Unless they’re in a match up I can’t refuse.
5 TE’s I’m Interested in Using.
- Coby Fleener: Brees make tight ends look like stud wide outs. Ask his last two starting tight ends.
- Travis Kelce: We know Alex Smith hate wide receivers; he apparently loves Kelce especially within 20 yards of the end zone.
- Zach Ertz: I was all in Ertz Kool-Aid before Wentz got the call to start. I’m even more interested in Ertz now. Rookie QB’s does tend to hang on to their safety blanket which are there tight ends.
- Jason Witten: Historically rookie likes to use the short range game a lot. I will use a few Prescott/Witten stacks.
- Jesse James: Who? That’s what I said. He’s Big Ben tight end and at $4500 I have to give him a try.
Last year I didn’t put much time in scouting kickers; I will change that this year. So Next on the agenda is…….
5 Kickers I’m interested in using this week.
Just 4 Kicks
- Steven Hauschka: Elite kicker that will be highly owned most likely
- Dan Bailey: With a Rookie Quarterback and Rookie Running Back I expect Bailey to get a couple of Long range fg attempts.
- Adam Vinatieri: Adam should see most of his points from XPs, I’ll take all I can get from a kicker.
- Chris Boswell: High powered offense vs a suspected defense; even if the defense has improved vs last year it’s a positive for Boswell who does have a pretty decent leg.
Closing out the show is everyone’s favorite the defensive squads. I love to use defenses that can put some pressure on the offense. Those teams tend to have high takeaway ratios. Here’s my……
5 Defensive squads I’m interested in using Thursday thru Monday.
The Stopping 5
- Carolina Panthers: Lost some bodies in the secondary, I personally think the front 7 was the reason they had so much success anyway.
- Seattle Seahawks: Vegas project Miami to only score 16.8 points against this defense
- Kansas City Chiefs: Looking at the match up KC could very well lead the defensive squad in points
- L.A. Rams: up against the 49ers offense; Unless Chip has a secret weapon I expect the rams to finish with around 10 fpts or more.
- Tennessee Titans: Up against Shaun Hill and the One Dimensional offense of The Vikings.
I hope you enjoyed this article. I’ve literally taken my notes and put every bit of it for the world to see. Now please be gentle with me on the grammar and the spelling. I’m from Mississippi “We don’t know know better here”. If you have any question please hit me up on twitter @adamhart39455. Thank you and have a blessed day.
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